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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/covid-diagnosis-asymptomatic/">新冠「无症状」诊断标准：语言腐败</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2022-12-19 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1055 字 </span>
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      <p>著名的「90%无症状」论，这些天遭到空前的质疑。四月份上海方舱载歌载舞的盛景音容宛在，怎么到了如今毒力更弱的版本，反而普遍要吞刀咳肺彻骨烧了呢？官方解释说，这是因为不再普筛，广大真·无症状感染者作为「沉默的多数」泯然不言，大家看到的只有症状特别明显的「水面上的冰山」。解释得相当优雅，我不禁要送上掌声。然而很多人的整个人际网络基本都感染了，多数都有症状。人们不禁纳闷：那传说中90%的无症状感染者究竟去哪儿了呢？难道我活得太低端了，配不上和他们做朋友吗？「身边的统计学」和官方说辞相差如此之远，总有一个是错的。</p>
<p>官方错了。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/covid-strategy-u-turn/">既又也还行无路，一脚油门发卡弯</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2022-11-30 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1663 字 </span>
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      <h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>二十条既又也还，清零目标的内核实际已被掏空，只是换轨前还不能急着把现行轨道抽走，不然车马上就翻了。后续进入前景难料的「压低曲线」阶段，仰卧起坐式的策略调整会成为常态。气流颠簸，换哪架飞机都得晃。国境控制、早期识别、洁污分离几个前期策略都陆续失效了，还是要回到疫苗上来。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/huashan-paper-critic/">「预」字号论文，不那么靠谱</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2022-06-22 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1604 字 </span>
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      <div class="admonition abstract"><p class="admonition-title">摘要</p>
<h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>带pre字眼的论文多少都有点让人心里没底。比如pre-print（预印本），管它最后学术界买不买账，水灌下去再说。相当一部分最后被毙了，但在自媒体上搅出很大风浪。</p>
<p>比如两个月前广为传播、麻省总院和哈佛医学院联名的预印本《奥密克戎变种跟前几波流行株一样致命》（下图），在麻省最顶尖的13家医院收集了13万病人的大(!)数据，校正了疫苗接种情况、人口学特征和基线严重程度（Charlson指数）后，发现奥密克戎跟之前的流行株致病力没差别。这文章当时被转得很广，但争议很大。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/covid19-zero-policy-restructure/">新冠防控系统重构与清零目标</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2022-04-04 </span>
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          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 3543 字 </span>
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      <div class="admonition abstract"><p class="admonition-title">摘要</p>
<ol>
<li>防疫不只是专业，它离不开政治，而且是当前最大的政治。<strong>利用好这一点</strong>。</li>
<li>重构抗疫系统，必须符合「清零」战略目标。</li>
<li>清零是阶段战略目标，不是北极星，回归正常生活（放开）才是。</li>
</ol>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/shanghai-covid19-trend/">上海新冠封控两则</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2022-03-27 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1123 字 </span>
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      <h2 id="03-22">03-22</h2>
<p>本月全面解封基本无望；相反，可能还要加码。从其他社会面清零的城市经验来看，一般要快速达峰后，高位波动几天，才开始调头下行。目前上海还在爬第一个峰，一周内磨出顶算好的了。无症状比例那么高，并不寻常，毕竟诊断标准还在收紧（确诊CT值从40降到35）。之前精准防疫各种好，因为范围小，动作早，防疫人员专业给力。这波发现得晚，传得广，精兵一下不够用了，于是作战下放到社区，结果乱来一气：普筛核酸不摸底，不保证全员率；封小区前放人出去大采购；病号困在小区看不了病的破事也出来了。预计管控措施要升级，普筛的组织力度会加强。没有永远的优等生，卷子一直在变。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/non-standard-medical-insurance-dilemma/">为什么带病体健康险卖不动</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2022-02-18 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%A0%E9%A2%98/"> 无题 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 3111 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 7 分钟 </span>
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      <h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>今次，谈点工作相关的话题（很快就不再相关了）：带病体健康险。</p>
<p>年初，银保监给所有人身险公司发了份《商业健康险发展问题和建议》，开地图炮把健康险都怼了一遍：「忽视带病体和老幼人群」「创新和保障能力不足」。言下之意，只顾 all in 标准体，不配合「共同富裕」的高层战略——这两年，银保监就没少嫌弃过这事，负责官员一有机会就开轰——话说得都有道理，但情况并没什么改善，你基本查不到几种像样的带病体或老年健康险。那么，莫非保险公司是真的皮厚头铁，对此无动于衷？倒也不是，专病险、带病险这些年还是出了不少，但基本都卖不动。卖不动就积累不到数据，没有数据就没法精确定（降）价，结果产品吸引力不足，于是继续卖不动——完美的毅种循环。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/anti-christmas-fallacy/">反对过圣诞节不如反向过圣诞节</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2021-12-26 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1573 字 </span>
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      <p>每年这个时候，都会冒出一片「反对过洋节」的声音。理由无非是「圣诞」纪念耶稣生日，此乃基督教世界的文化侵略。随着近年本土文化意识的觉醒，这声音越来越响，官方也更频繁地出场介入。过不过圣诞，似乎成了可以区分「尊华」「崇洋」，甚至是「爱国」「叛国」立场的关键标志。但这显然是狭隘解读，不符合事态实质，更不利于树立文化自信。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/metaverse-is-disaster-term/">元宇宙——垃圾营销词</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2021-10-30 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1098 字 </span>
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      <p>「元宇宙」一词，是技术术语界史诗级的灾难。这个灾难是双重的：原词「metaverse」本身就是个垃圾合成词；而在翻译过程中，又发生了源于知识贫乏的误译。偏偏技术资本端着这杯灾难般酿成的二锅头，美滋滋地叫它「宫廷玉液酒」。</p>
<p>metaverse明显是xx-verse家族中的一个冒牌货，蹭的是正牌universe（宇宙）概念。universe来源于拉丁语，unus（一）+versus（被转变成），其实跟英文里的verse（韵文）没什么关系，表达的意思也比纯物理的「宇宙」（cosmos）要广。后来有了「平行宇宙」（multiverse）甚至「旁宇宙」（paraverse），俨然就把-verse当成表示时空集合体的词根了。这一切都已经够荒唐了——但至少还在表达大尺度时空的意思。到了「metaverse」，就完全不再管客观时空，只表达人类感官虚拟体验的主观抽象。以井为天，自小其心，这是语言的堕落。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/zhang-wenhong-gao-qiang-contraversy/">失效的公共讨论——张文宏高强争议风波</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2021-08-15 </span>
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          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 2573 字 </span>
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      <h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>张文宏和高强这场「论争」风波让人厌倦，它再度展示了互联网的两项鬼斧神工的伟力：</p>
<ul>
<li>劣力：将严肃的公共讨论迅速劣化</li>
<li>裂力：无端制造人群厌憎和分裂</li>
</ul>
<p>照着当今粉圈纷争的格式脚本，人们无可救药地被裹挟、吃瓜、站队、曲解、攻击、挖坟举报、道德鞭尸，不把一方斗倒斗臭绝不罢手——没有必要的规约和边界，只有偏见、情绪和下意识反应，最后也丝毫得不到长进。但这场论争原本并不存在，它是被附会和煽动起来的。不管高的初衷是什么，他的意见和张没有本质分歧，只是语言风格和期望设定不同。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/may-1-zhenjiang-yangzhou-drive/">2021五一自驾游镇江扬州</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2021-05-05 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%85%E6%B8%B8/"> 旅游 </a>
          </div>
        <span class="more-meta"> 约 4799 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 10 分钟 </span>
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  </header>
  
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    <div class="post-summary">
      <div class="admonition abstract"><p class="admonition-title">摘要</p>
<p>这个五一，自豪地解锁了「长途龟速自驾7小时」技能。跟腱和膀胱都得到了宝贵的锻炼。</p>
</div>
<h2 id="去程">去程</h2>
<p>4月30号下午出城线路就全红。导航掐指一算，得开6个多小时。到午夜，埋伏多时的抢零好汉纷纷加入，于是红线越拉越长。3点钟在焦虑中醒来，看了眼手机，好家伙，得开7个多小时。到处都是车祸标志，现场像聊斋公路片，尾灯静悄悄、红晃晃地在夜色里绵延好几公里。对向一个车都没有。</p>
<p>熬到5点多，路况毫无松动迹象。忍不住了，把全家叫醒，决定硬着头皮出发。照这态势，等8点以后再走，一个白天都得耗路上——房不能退，路不能清，木已成舟，麦已成面，战略上没法调整，就在战术上做好择时吧。</p>
<p>导航建议，要不绕道湖州再北上，路还空点。</p>
<p>绕就绕吧。千金难买路不堵。</p>
<p>等洗漱完打着哈欠出发，咦？导航变卦推荐G2了。</p>
<p>哦，原来湖州那条路也堵上了。</p>
    </div>
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      <a href="/post/may-1-zhenjiang-yangzhou-drive/" class="read-more-link">阅读更多</a>
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